the effect of climate change on economists

[low_delta]

Some leading economists were asked about the consequences of glaobal climate change regarding agriculture.

William Nordhais of Yale, said, "Agriculture, the part of the economy that is sensitive to climate change, accounts for just three percent of national output. That means there is no way to get a very large effect on the US economy."

He was not the only one of the group who felt this way.

Wilfed Beckerman of Oxford said, "Even if net output of agriculture fell by 50 percent by the end of the next century, this is only a 1.5 percent cut in GNP."

What are these guys smoking? How can a 50% drop in food production not have an enormous effect on society in general and therefore the economy?

It makes me wonder if the question these guys were answering was loaded a certain way, or their answers taken out of context.

Comments

[sunshine-two.livejournal.com]

Obviously they're not taking a bunch of things into account. If you cut half of the farming operations from the states, you also lose a lot in other ways. Farming supports a number of communities and related industries.

[springheel-jack.livejournal.com]

Wow, nuts. They've never heard of the multiplier? I learned about that in high school.

[penpusher.livejournal.com]

They're clearly thiking only in terms of economic impact directly related to jobs, rather than the effect 50 percent less food would have on the citizens of the nation at large!

There are a LOT of short-sighted people out there. It's pretty scary.

[marswalker.livejournal.com]

We do waste a lot of what's grown in this country. Between gov't cheese and grain programs, we could probably export velveeta sandwiches to most of the starving folks in Africa. If they were smart, they'd use the Velveeta as waterproof shingles.

Anyway, they may be looking from the point of eliminating standing cheese-and-grain banks (etc).

In any case, it sounds like they're only basing predictions on the changed output, but not taking into account that the climate will change throughout the states - where there is currently good farming climate may chage to unfavorable, and vice-versa. This would mean that the areas that are well equiped would have to move their equipment or let it rust. Many low-lying areas will become flooded as waters rise, and become useless for anything but fish and mosquito farming.

The more I think about it, the more it sounds like a demonstration of trickle-down ecomonic woes.